Michigan & more early Primaries: Feb. 8-March 3, 2024
Trump and Biden down to one challenger each
We list below the delegate counts for the early primaries and caucuses -- because the delegate counts are all that matter!
Marianne Williamson withdrew after the Michigan primary, leaving Joe Biden with only Rep. Dean Phillips as a challenger. [But she "unsuspended" her campaign for Super Tuesday!]
Vivek Ramaswamy and Gov. Ron DeSantis withdrew and endorsed Donald Trump, leaving only Gov. Nikki Haley as a challenger.
South Carolina & Nevada Democratic Primaries: Feb. 3-6, 2024
South Carolina Republican Primary coming on Feb. 28; Nevada Republican caucus coming on Feb. 8
President Biden won his first REAL primary -- because the N.H. primary awarded no delegates, but the South Carolina and Nevada primaries do. The reason for Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to continue their campaigns is to gain some delegates so they have a voice at the summer convention. That didn't happen in the SC or NV primary (but it DID happen for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, and she'll keep gaining delegates as long as she stays in the race).
The Republicans DID hold a primary in Nevada but it was a "beauty contest" where no delegates were awarded; the delegates will be awarded at a caucus on Feb. 8.
The results are in for the NH Primaries (and the Iowa caucuses).
First we report the delegate counts -- the only number that REALLY matters:
Bound Delegates
IA
NH
Total
Donald Trump
20
12
32
Nikki Haley
8
9
17
Ron DeSantis
9
0
9
Vivek Ramaswamy
3
0
3
Total needed for nomination:
1,215
Donald Trump won both IA and NH, but these are both small contests in terms of delegates, and the runners-up do get delegates awarded too. When Nikki Haley says she'll "stay in the race," she means she'll seek more delegates in her home state of South Carolina (Feb. 24) and on "Super Tuesday" (multiple states on March 5).
By staying in the race, Haley will gain hundreds of delegates, who are "bound" to vote for her in the first nominating round at the Republican Convention on July 15. Trump's delegates are bound for Trump too -- but delegates are not bound on the second round of voting. By July, Trump may face felony convictions, and some delegates may seek a second round. The pundits ask, "What is Haley's path to the nomination?" -- that is ONE path, however unlikely!
While the pundits ooze breathlessly about the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire, keep in mind that they represent only a tiny fraction of the voting population. Both are small states, and much less racially diverse than the rest of the country -- and even within their small, mostly-white populations, few people actually turn out to vote. In Iowa, only about 15% of registered Republicans voted in the caucuses (just over 100,000 people out of a population of 3.2 million). In New Hampshire, about 300,000 voted out of a population of 1.4 million (which might make 40% of registered voters). That means about 400,000 people have voted in Republican primaries -- compared to 36 million in 2020 -- there's a long way to go!
The New Hampshire Democrats did hold a primary, but did not elect any delegates (because they broke the Democratic Party rules about voting too early). Also, Joe Biden's name was not printed on the ballot (because he wanted to respect the Democratic Party rules) and all of his votes were "write-in" votes. But Biden won the popular vote handily anyway (with lower turnout than the Republican primary). The Iowa Democrats' "presidential preference" caucus will be finalized on March 5.
Sources:
CBS News, "How many delegates does New Hampshire have for the 2024 primary and how are they awarded?", by Kathryn Watson, (Link)
New York Post, "New Hampshire primary live updates: Trump celebrates third NH primary win, mocks 'imposter' Haley for loss," by Diana Glebova , Ryan King , Steven Nelson , Samuel Chamberlain and Kaydi Pelletier, (Link)
CBS News, "Iowa caucus turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years," by Kaia Hubbard, January 16, 2024, (Link)
New York Times, "New Hampshire's G.O.P. Primary Sets a State Turnout Record," by Nick Corasaniti, (Link)
Ballotpedia vote counts for Iowa and New Hampshire, all of the above downloaded 1/24/24 unless otherwise dated.
Oct. 6: Mayor Steve Laffey: Switched from Republican to Independent, and withdrew
For the upcoming Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, there are 5 candidates remainging running in the Republican primary, and 3 candidates running in the Democratic primary.
Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - now including Dr. Jill Stein and Rep. Dean Phillips.
Fourth GOP Presidential debate: Dec. 6, 2023
4 contenders in Tuscaloosa
The Republican National Committee established these qualifications for the 4th debate:
Participants must have 6% of the vote in multiple polls (an increase from 4% in the 3rd debate)
Participants must have 80,000 unique donors (an increase from 70,000 donors in the 3rd debate)
Participants must sign a pledge to support the party's eventual 2024 nominee (Trump does not qualify for this criteria, but Trump was invited anyway. Trump did not counter-program against this debate).
NewsNation Republican Primary Debate in Tuscaloosa (University of Alabama)
Moderated by Megyn Kelly of SiriusXM; Elizabeth Vargas of NewsNation; and Eliana Johnson of Washington Free Beacon
The fourth and final Republican Presidential Primary Debate of 2023, from the University of Alabama; broadcast on News Nation and the CW.
The 2023 Governor races are all decided now, so we begin our coverage of the 2024 Governor races in thirteen states.
Click on the state name below to see our coverage of the primary races,
or click on each candidate's name to see their VoteMatch responses.
Two Gubernatorial races -- MS and KY -- were decided on November 7.
Our VoteMatch quiz covers all three 2023 governor's races (pick KY, LA, or MS under "2022 Gubernatorial races").
Brandon Presley, Democratic Mississippi Public Service Commissioner
Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - where all of the gathered excerpts match YOUR issue stances.
Dean Phillips announces as Democrat: Oct. 27, 2023
Rep. Dean Phillips (R-MN) challenges President Biden
Rep. Dean Phillips (R-MN) announced a challenge to President Biden in the Democratic presidential primary. Rep. Phillips will likely win the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Democratic primary because President Biden has decided to not file papers to appear on the N.H. ballot, to comply with Democratic Party rules about early voting states. Some issue stances by Dean Phillips:
The Hill news magazine suggested that the key feature of the Speaker votes were the level of support for overturning the 2020 election. So we looked into three key votes to characterize each Speaker candidates; views on the events of January 6th. For each key vote, we scored the votes as follows on a scale from "-2" indicating support of the events of January 6th, to "+2" indicating opposition of the events of January 6th. The overall score for Republican candidates for Speaker of the House can be interpreted as -6 = hard-core supporter of overturning the 2020 election; while any other score indicates a more moderate stance.
Electoral Decertification: This vote took place on January 6th, after a long interruption by rioters entering the Capitol building. The vote was to block certification of the vote of the Electoral College. Three GOP Speaker candidates voted NAY:
YEA to block certification scores as -2 (support Jan. 6 events)
NAY to block certification scores as +2 (oppose Jan. 6 events)
H.R. 24 Impeachment: President Trump was impeached for inciting insurrection. The impeachment vote was opposed by every candidate for Speaker:
NAY on impeachment in House vote scores as -2 (support Jan. 6 events)
YEA on impeachment in House vote scores as +1 (oppose Jan. 6 events)
H.R. 503 Commission: Congress created a Commission to investigate the events of Jan. 6th. Only one Speaker candidate abstained from this vote, but that candidate eventually won the Speakership:
NAY on creating a Jan. 6 Commission scores as -2 (support Jan. 6 events)
YEA on creating a Jan. 6 Commission scores as +2 (oppose Jan. 6 events)
Bottom Line: Mike Johnson is not as extreme as many of his colleagues, concerning the January 6th insurrection. The mainstream media has taken a partisan stance, asserting that he's an extremist who supported overturning the 2020 election. But 105 Republican members of Congress voted along the party line on all three of the votes analyzed below, while Johnson did not, on one out of the three. Looking at that voting record, the new Speaker shows more thoughtfulness than his most extremist colleagues.
The Louisiana Gubernatorial race includes a "jungle primary" without party affiliation -- and normally the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff on November 18.
But one candidate exceeded 50% and hence was declared elected without a runoff.
The other two Gubernatorial races -- MS and KY -- are still on for November 7.
Our VoteMatch quiz covers all three 2023 governor's races (pick KY, LA, or MS under "2022 Gubernatorial races").
Brandon Presley, Democratic Mississippi Public Service Commissioner
Source: Try the VoteMatch quiz for KY/MS/LA governor races.
RFK Jr. announces as Independent: Oct. 9, 2023
Kennedy drops out of Demoratic primary; Will Hurd drops out of Republican primary
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run for president as an Independent instead of challenging President Biden in the Democratic primary.
The pundits are at a loss to explain this, portraying RFK's decision in horse-race terms like "Will Kennedy take more votes from Biden or Trump?" At OnTheIssues, we explain RFK by ignoring the simplistic either-or left-right spectrum -- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a centrist who doesn't fit the mainstream media's Democrat-vs.-Republican-only model. Take a look at our coverage of RFK, by clicking on the links below, which illustrate RFK's stances that match the typical left AND the typical right:
RFK's stances that match typical Democrats
RFK's stances that match typical Republicans
On abortion: Supports abortion rights, but every abortion is a tragedy
On race relations: Address racial healing through Targeted Community Repair
On ObamaCare: We will move from a sick care system to a wellness society
On environment: We will protect wild lands from further development
On police reform: Instead of defunding the police, transform the police
On U.S. role abroad: End the imperial project and attend to what's been neglected
In response to Speaker McCarthy's passing a budget extension bill with Democratic support last week,
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL-1) introduced a "motion to vacate the Chair."
The motion passed 216 to 210, with Democratic support as well. Now the U.S. House will vote, perhaps this week, for a new House Speaker. House leadership includes....
Debate hosted by Fox Business Network with Univision and Rumble, an online video platform.
The Republican National Committee established these qualifications for the 2nd debate:
Participants must have 3% of the vote in multiple polls (an increase from 1% in the 1st debate)
Participants must have 50,000 unique donors, including at least 200 from 20 different states (an increase from 40,000 donors in the 1st debate)
Participants must sign the RNC's loyalty pledge, vowing to support the party's eventual nominee (same as for 1st debate).
Larry Elder, Perry Johnson, and Rep. Will Hurd withdrew from the presidential race shortly before this debate.
Former President Donald Trump counter-programmed against this debate, as in the first debate.
Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - where all of the gathered excerpts match YOUR issue stances.
GOP Presidential debate: Aug. 23, 2023
Plus Trump counter-programming interview
Click below to see excerpts from the first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee,
plus "Tucker on X" interview of Donald Trump, plus AdWatch and FactCheck commentary.
VoteMatch quiz is ready for all the presidential primary contenders
OnTheIssues' VoteMatch quiz matches you with all the presidential candidates when you answer 20 questions.
The quiz also describes your political philosophy based on your 20 questions. The political philosophies for the contenders are:
We're ready for the first Republican primary debate
Click on a name below to see the VoteMatch preparation for the Republican primary debate.
We don't know which contenders will make the debate criteria, but we cover them all.
OnTheIssues includes historical political excerpts to highlight past presidents and other historical figures. We unveil our "history" series on Independence Day when all Americans think about our history!
The dividing line between "announcing early" and "announcing late" has now occured, and five new candidates decided to "announce early" this week. Any candidate who announces after this week will be deemed to be "announcing late".
In the Republican primary, the determining factor is eligibility for the early debates, which erquire 40,000 donors by August 23 -- just two months away. And the candidate needs to poll at 1% or above in several polls -- but every candidate thinks they can manage that -- the 40,000 donors is less open to interpretation. Here are the new contenders:
June 22: Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX-23), running for Republican nomination
June 14: Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez, running for Republican nomination
June 13: Harvard Professor Cornel West, running for Green Party nomination (and People's Party as of June 5)
June 7: North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, running for Republican nomination
June 6: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, ran for 2016 Republican nomination
June 5: Former Vice President Mike Pence, running for Republican nomination
April 19: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running for Democratic nomination (new OnTheIssues page this week)
February 21: Vivek Ramaswamy, running for Reublican nomination (new OnTheIssues page this week)
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) announces presidential run
The Republican Senator from South Carolina announced today that he will run for the Republica presidential nomination. The Republican Governor of Florida is expected to announce later this week. In other words, the presidential primary is underway! Here are the contenders so far, including their announcement status:
State of the State Speeches (Round 2): April 2, 2023
Excerpts from Governor's late State of the State addresses
Governors' State of the State addresses take place mostly in January through March, with just a few extending into April. Here, we highlight differences between the "left" and "right" stances on key issues -- like our earlier list on Feb. 28...
Left-leaning stance
Description of the stances
Right-leaning stance
Wes Moore (D, MD): We can invest today while also preparing for the future
Budget Spending vs. Budget Cuts
Jim Pillen (R, NE): Agencies must focus on what is needed, not what is nice.
Janet Mills (D, ME): Expert in substance abuse for every child welfare district
Drug Rehab vs. Drug War
Greg Abbott (R, TX): Treat fentanyl deaths as poisonings; prosecute as murders
Tony Evers (D, WI): More than $100M to take a three-pronged approach on PFAS
What are the issue stances of the new GOP majority?
On March 7, the 435th member of Congress was sworn in -- Jennifer McClellan of Virginia -- after a special election (SPEL) in February to replace Donald McEachin, who died in late November 2022. This means both chambers are now full (for the first time since 2019) after the Senate's SPEL winner was seated on January 23, 2023.
Following are all of the newly-seated members of the 118th United States Congress, including those elected in all SPELs during the 117th Congress. The slightly longer list for Republicans reflects the GOP takeover of the House majority. Our coverage for now is "thin" for most new House members, but will get filled in during the coming months, as voting occurs. The overall counts by party during the November election, not including SPELs, are:
35 newly-seated Democrats, including 12 Dem. gains and 23 Dem. holds...
41 newly-seated Republicans, including 18 GOP gains and 23 GOP holds...
Democrats newly-seated in 118th United States Congress
Republicans newly-seated in 118th United States Congress
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