Which House incumbents are most likely to lose?
- OnTheIssues.org analyzed the House incumbents to determine the most vulnerable in the 2012 election.
- The list of the most vulnerable incumbents appears below; we will report on our accuracy after the elections.
- Most vulnerable Democrats
- Most vulnerable Republicans
- Retiring (perhaps due to vulnerability)
- Lost Primary (perhaps due to vulnerability)
- Changed District (perhaps due to vulnerability)
- Our methods:
- We looked for incumbents whose party is a mismatch with the people in that district.
- For incumbent Democrats, if McCain won the district in 2008, the incumbent is vulnerable.
- For incumbent Republicans, if Obama won the district in 2008, the incumbent is vulnerable.
- The degree of vulnerability is scored by the percentage difference between Obama and McCain.
- We also compared the results of the 2004 election, and added in the the percentage difference between Kerry and Bush.
- The overall score indicates the degree of incumbent vulnerability; we list the incumbents sequenced by this vulnerability score.
- A higher score (larger negative number) indicates a higher vulnerability.
- Our limitations:
- The 2012 election includes redistricting from the 2010 census; that often mixes up districts and also mixes up this analysis.
- We note which districts are shifted due to redistricting; those districts are harder to predict because they have never voted before within those district lines.
- Incumbents work hard to ensure that redistricting HELPS them rather than HURTS them; but the results depend on the majority party of their state legislature.
- The prevalence of vulnerable Republicans (26) over vulnerable Democrats (6) is due to Obama's large victory in 2008; districts are more likely to look Democrat than to look Republican.
- Accordingly, we omit incumbents whose district vote in the 2004 presidential race more than compensated for the 2008 presidential race.
- You can download the list of incumbents who fell off the vulnerability list during that process.
- We also note if the incumbent is a freshman (first elected in 2010) which makes them even more vulnerable (but not indicated in the score).
- This method has been used by myself and my political cronies to predict vulnerable Massachusetts House races in the past.
- This is the first application to federal House races; come back after November to see how it works!
Most vulnerable Democrats |
| District | Incumbent | Party | Obama% | McCain% | Kerry% | Bush% | SCORE | |
| KY-6 | Ben Chandler | D | 43% | 55% | 41% | 58% | -29 | |
| WV-3 | Nick Rahall | D | 42% | 56% | 46% | 53% | -21 | |
| NY-26 | Kathy Hochul | D | 46% | 52% | 43% | 55% | -18 | Special Election 2011; NY redistricting loses 2 seats |
| NC-7 | Mike McIntyre | D | 47% | 52% | 44% | 56% | -17 | |
| MN-7 | Collin Peterson | D | 47% | 50% | 43% | 55% | -15 | |
| NC-8 | Larry Kissell | D | 52% | 47% | 45% | 54% | -4 | |
Most vulnerable Republicans |
| District | Incumbent | Party | Obama% | McCain% | Kerry% | Bush% | SCORE | |
| IL-10 | Robert Dold | R | 61% | 38% | 53% | 47% | -29 | Freshman; IL redistricting loses 1 seat |
| PA-11 | Lou Barletta | R | 57% | 42% | 53% | 47% | -21 | Freshman; PA redistricting loses 1 seat |
| PA-6 | Jim Gerlach | R | 58% | 41% | 51% | 48% | -20 | PA redistricting loses 1 seat |
| PA-7 | Patrick Meehan | R | 56% | 43% | 53% | 47% | -19 | Freshman |
| IL-17 | Bobby Schilling | R | 57% | 42% | 51% | 48% | -18 | Freshman; IL redistricting loses 1 seat |
| NH-2 | Charlie Bass | R | 56% | 43% | 52% | 47% | -18 | |
| WA-8 | Dave Reichert | R | 57% | 42% | 51% | 48% | -18 | WA redistricting gains 1 seat |
| MN-8 | Chip Cravaack | R | 53% | 45% | 53% | 46% | -15 | |
| NY-25 | Ann Marie Buerkle | R | 56% | 43% | 5% | 48% | -15 | Freshman; NY redistricting loses 2 seats |
| WI-7 | Sean Duffy | R | 56% | 42% | 5% | 49% | -15 | Freshman |
| PA-15 | Charlie Dent | R | 56% | 43% | 5% | 5% | -13 | PA redistricting loses 1 seat |
| PA-8 | Mike Fitzpatrick | R | 54% | 45% | 51% | 48% | -12 | Re-elected Freshman; PA redistricting loses 1 seat |
| NV-3 | Joe Heck | R | 55% | 43% | 49% | 5% | -11 | Freshman; NV redistricting gains 1 seat |
| OH-1 | Steve Chabot | R | 55% | 44% | 49% | 51% | -9 | Re-elected Freshman; OH redistricting loses 2 seats |
| OH-15 | Steve Stivers | R | 54% | 45% | 5% | 5% | -9 | Freshman; OH redistricting loses 2 seats |
| FL-22 | Allen West | R | 52% | 48% | 53% | 48% | -9 | Freshman; FL redistricting gains 2 seats |
| NJ-2 | Frank LoBiondo | R | 54% | 45% | 49% | 5% | -8 | NJ redistricting loses 1 seat |
| IL-6 | Peter Roskam | R | 56% | 43% | 47% | 53% | -7 | IL redistricting loses 1 seat |
| OH-12 | Pat Tiberi | R | 54% | 45% | 49% | 51% | -7 | OH redistricting loses 2 seats |
| WA-3 | Jaime Herrera | R | 53% | 45% | 48% | 5% | -6 | Freshman; WA redistricting gains 1 seat |
| IA-4 | Tom Latham | R | 53% | 45% | 48% | 51% | -5 | |
| FL-10 | Bill Young | R | 52% | 47% | 49% | 51% | -3 | FL redistricting gains 2 seats |
| NH-1 | Frank Guinta | R | 53% | 47% | 48% | 51% | -3 | Freshman |
| NJ-3 | Jon Runyan | R | 52% | 47% | 49% | 51% | -3 | NJ redistricting loses 1 seat |
| MI-11 | Thad McCotter | R | 54% | 45% | 47% | 53% | -3 | Write-in |
| MN-3 | Erik Paulsen | R | 52% | 46% | 48% | 51% | -3 | |
Retiring (perhaps due to vulnerability) |
| District | Incumbent | Party | Obama% | McCain% | Kerry% | Bush% | SCORE | |
| AR-4 | Mike Ross | D | 39% | 58% | 48% | 51% | -22 | Retiring |
| NC-11 | Heath Shuler | D | 47% | 52% | 43% | 57% | -19 | Retiring |
| OK-2 | Dan Boren | D | 34% | 66% | 41% | 59% | -50 | Retiring |
| NV-1 | Shelley Berkley | D | 49% | 49% | 41% | 57% | -16 | Running for Senate; NV redistricting gains 1 seat |
| AZ-8 | Gabby Giffords | D | 46% | 52% | 46% | 52% | -12 | Resigned; AZ redistricting gains 1 seat |
Changed District (perhaps due to vulnerability) |
| District | Incumbent | Party | Obama% | McCain% | Kerry% | Bush% | SCORE | |
| UT-2 | Jim Matheson | D | 4% | 58% | 31% | 66% | -53 | New district 4; UT redistricting gains 1 seat |
| AZ-3 | Ben Quayle | R | Switched to District 6 | Lost primary; AZ redistricting gains 1 seat |
| MI-13 | Hansen Clarke | D | Switched to District 9 | Lost primary; MI redistricting loses 1 seat |
| MO-3 | Russ Carnahan | D | Switched to District 1 | Lost primary; MO redistricting loses 1 seat |
| NJ-9 | Steven Rothman | D | Switched to District 8 | Lost primary; NJ redistricting loses 1 seat |
| OH-10 | Dennis Kucinich | D | Switched to District 9 | Lost primary; OH redistricting loses 2 seats |
Lost primary (perhaps due to vulnerability) |
| District | Incumbent | Party | Obama% | McCain% | Kerry% | Bush% | SCORE | |
| PA-17 | Tim Holden | D | 48% | 51% | 42% | 58% | -19 | Lost primary; PA redistricting loses 1 seat |
| PA-4 | Jason Altmire | D | 44% | 55% | 45% | 54% | -20 | Lost primary; PA redistricting loses 1 seat |
| FL-6 | Cliff Stearns | R | Redistricting shifted district | Lost primary; FL redistricting gains 2 seats |
| FL-24 | Sandy Adams | R | Redistricting overlapped with district 7 | Lost primary to District 7 incumbent; FL redistricting gains 2 seats |
| IL-16 | Donald Manzullo | R | Redistricting shifted district | Lost primary; IL redistricting loses 1 seat |
| OH-2 | Jean Schmidt | R | Redistricting shifted district | Lost primary; OH redistricting loses 2 seats |
| OK-1 | John Sullivan | R | No redistricting | Lost primary. |
| TX-16 | Silvestre Reyes | D | Redistricting shifted district | Lost primary; TX redistricting gains 4 seats |
