Which House incumbents are most likely to lose?
- OnTheIssues.org analyzed the House incumbents to determine the most vulnerable in the 2012 election.
- The list of the most vulnerable incumbents appears below; we will report on our accuracy after the elections.
- Most vulnerable Democrats
- Most vulnerable Republicans
- Retiring (perhaps due to vulnerability)
- Lost Primary (perhaps due to vulnerability)
- Changed District (perhaps due to vulnerability)
- Our methods:
- We looked for incumbents whose party is a mismatch with the people in that district.
- For incumbent Democrats, if McCain won the district in 2008, the incumbent is vulnerable.
- For incumbent Republicans, if Obama won the district in 2008, the incumbent is vulnerable.
- The degree of vulnerability is scored by the percentage difference between Obama and McCain.
- We also compared the results of the 2004 election, and added in the the percentage difference between Kerry and Bush.
- The overall score indicates the degree of incumbent vulnerability; we list the incumbents sequenced by this vulnerability score.
- A higher score (larger negative number) indicates a higher vulnerability.
- Our limitations:
- The 2012 election includes redistricting from the 2010 census; that often mixes up districts and also mixes up this analysis.
- We note which districts are shifted due to redistricting; those districts are harder to predict because they have never voted before within those district lines.
- Incumbents work hard to ensure that redistricting HELPS them rather than HURTS them; but the results depend on the majority party of their state legislature.
- The prevalence of vulnerable Republicans (26) over vulnerable Democrats (6) is due to Obama's large victory in 2008; districts are more likely to look Democrat than to look Republican.
- Accordingly, we omit incumbents whose district vote in the 2004 presidential race more than compensated for the 2008 presidential race.
- You can download the list of incumbents who fell off the vulnerability list during that process.
- We also note if the incumbent is a freshman (first elected in 2010) which makes them even more vulnerable (but not indicated in the score).
- This method has been used by myself and my political cronies to predict vulnerable Massachusetts House races in the past.
- This is the first application to federal House races; come back after November to see how it works!
Most vulnerable Democrats
|KY-6|| Ben Chandler||D||43%||55%||41%||58%||-29|
|WV-3|| Nick Rahall||D||42%||56%||46%||53%||-21|
|NY-26||Kathy Hochul||D||46%||52%||43%||55%||-18||Special Election 2011; NY redistricting loses 2 seats|
|NC-7|| Mike McIntyre||D||47%||52%||44%||56%||-17|
|MN-7|| Collin Peterson||D||47%||50%||43%||55%||-15|
|NC-8|| Larry Kissell||D||52%||47%||45%||54%||-4|
Most vulnerable Republicans
|IL-10||Robert Dold||R||61%||38%||53%||47%||-29||Freshman; IL redistricting loses 1 seat|
|PA-11||Lou Barletta||R||57%||42%||53%||47%||-21||Freshman; PA redistricting loses 1 seat|
|PA-6|| Jim Gerlach||R||58%||41%||51%||48%||-20||PA redistricting loses 1 seat|
|PA-7|| Patrick Meehan||R||56%||43%||53%||47%||-19||Freshman|
|IL-17||Bobby Schilling||R||57%||42%||51%||48%||-18||Freshman; IL redistricting loses 1 seat|
|NH-2|| Charlie Bass||R||56%||43%||52%||47%||-18|
|WA-8|| Dave Reichert||R||57%||42%||51%||48%||-18||WA redistricting gains 1 seat|
|MN-8|| Chip Cravaack||R||53%||45%||53%||46%||-15|
|NY-25||Ann Marie Buerkle||R||56%||43%||5%||48%||-15||Freshman; NY redistricting loses 2 seats|
|WI-7|| Sean Duffy||R||56%||42%||5%||49%||-15||Freshman|
|PA-15||Charlie Dent||R||56%||43%||5%||5%||-13||PA redistricting loses 1 seat|
|PA-8|| Mike Fitzpatrick||R||54%||45%||51%||48%||-12||Re-elected Freshman; PA redistricting loses 1 seat|
|NV-3|| Joe Heck||R||55%||43%||49%||5%||-11||Freshman; NV redistricting gains 1 seat|
|OH-1|| Steve Chabot||R||55%||44%||49%||51%||-9||Re-elected Freshman; OH redistricting loses 2 seats|
|OH-15||Steve Stivers||R||54%||45%||5%||5%||-9||Freshman; OH redistricting loses 2 seats|
|FL-22||Allen West||R||52%||48%||53%||48%||-9||Freshman; FL redistricting gains 2 seats|
|NJ-2|| Frank LoBiondo||R||54%||45%||49%||5%||-8||NJ redistricting loses 1 seat|
|IL-6|| Peter Roskam||R||56%||43%||47%||53%||-7||IL redistricting loses 1 seat|
|OH-12||Pat Tiberi||R||54%||45%||49%||51%||-7||OH redistricting loses 2 seats|
|WA-3|| Jaime Herrera||R||53%||45%||48%||5%||-6||Freshman; WA redistricting gains 1 seat|
|IA-4|| Tom Latham||R||53%||45%||48%||51%||-5|
|FL-10||Bill Young||R||52%||47%||49%||51%||-3||FL redistricting gains 2 seats|
|NH-1|| Frank Guinta||R||53%||47%||48%||51%||-3||Freshman|
|NJ-3|| Jon Runyan||R||52%||47%||49%||51%||-3||NJ redistricting loses 1 seat|
|MN-3|| Erik Paulsen||R||52%||46%||48%||51%||-3|
Retiring (perhaps due to vulnerability)
|AR-4|| Mike Ross||D||39%||58%||48%||51%||-22||Retiring|
|OK-2|| Dan Boren||D||34%||66%||41%||59%||-50||Retiring|
|NV-1|| Shelley Berkley||D||49%||49%||41%||57%||-16||Running for Senate; NV redistricting gains 1 seat|
|AZ-8|| Gabby Giffords||D||46%||52%||46%||52%||-12||Resigned; AZ redistricting gains 1 seat|
Changed District (perhaps due to vulnerability)
|UT-2|| Jim Matheson||D||4%||58%||31%||66%||-53||New district 4; UT redistricting gains 1 seat|
|AZ-3|| Ben Quayle||R||Switched to District 6||Lost primary; AZ redistricting gains 1 seat|
|MI-13||Hansen Clarke||D||Switched to District 9||Lost primary; MI redistricting loses 1 seat|
|MO-3|| Russ Carnahan||D||Switched to District 1||Lost primary; MO redistricting loses 1 seat|
|NJ-9|| Steven Rothman||D||Switched to District 8||Lost primary; NJ redistricting loses 1 seat|
|OH-10||Dennis Kucinich||D||Switched to District 9||Lost primary; OH redistricting loses 2 seats|
Lost primary (perhaps due to vulnerability)
|PA-17||Tim Holden||D||48%||51%||42%||58%||-19||Lost primary; PA redistricting loses 1 seat|
|PA-4|| Jason Altmire||D||44%||55%||45%||54%||-20||Lost primary; PA redistricting loses 1 seat|
|FL-6|| Cliff Stearns||R||Redistricting shifted district||Lost primary; FL redistricting gains 2 seats|
|FL-24||Sandy Adams||R||Redistricting overlapped with district 7||Lost primary to District 7 incumbent; FL redistricting gains 2 seats|
|IL-16||Donald Manzullo||R||Redistricting shifted district||Lost primary; IL redistricting loses 1 seat|
|OH-2||Jean Schmidt||R||Redistricting shifted district||Lost primary; OH redistricting loses 2 seats|
|OK-1||John Sullivan||R||No redistricting||Lost primary.|
|TX-16||Silvestre Reyes||D||Redistricting shifted district||Lost primary; TX redistricting gains 4 seats|