Open versus Closed caucuses and primaries

FAQ: Open vs. Closed primaries and caucuses

Open versus Closed caucuses and primaries

Super Tuesday determines the delegate lead

Who's ahead after the Nevada caucus?
Open versus Closed contests
Super Tuesday determines the delegate lead

Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses, but since it's a proportional caucus, the three other contenders -- Sen. Rick Santorum, Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Rep. Ron Paul -- also gained a few delegates each. The delegate score after the Nevada caucuses is:

Nevada holds "closed caucuses", which means only voters who had previously registered as Republicans can vote. Closed caucuses have fewer participants than open caucuses, and caucuses have fewer participants than primaries. So a closed caucus is the smallest of all contests -- only 33,000 people voted in Nevada, compared to 250,000 in New Hampshire.

We discussed last week why Ron Paul contested Nevada (and Maine and Colorado this week), because Rep. Paul could gain delegates in Nevada's proportional contest but not in Florida's winner-take-all contest. That explains why Rep. Paul has been campaigning heavily in the caucus states of Maine, Colorado and Nevada -- because he is likely to do better in the proportional caucuses in those states than in other contests.

What about all the upcoming February primaries and Super Tuesday primaries? There's another factor to consider when strategizing about where to focus: is the contest "open" or "closed"? An "open primary" means Democrats and Independents can vote in the Republican primary; in a "closed primary" only registered Republicans can vote. Rep. Ron Paul, more than the other three remaining contenders, attracts Democrats and Independents (so did Gov. Jon Huntsman and Gov. Gary Johnson, but they withdrew!)

Alabama
Arizona (Semi-open)
Arkansas
Georgia
Hawaii
Illinois (Semi-open)
Indiana (Semi-open)
Massachusetts (Semi-open)
Michigan (Semi-open)
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
New Hampshire (Semi-open)
North Carolina (Semi-open)
Rhode Island (Semi-open)
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
(Source: Fairvote.org)

A "semi-open" contest means Independents can vote in the Republican primary, but Democrats cannot (or some other variation). Moderate candidates do better in open contests because Independents prefer moderates.

Sen. Santorum and Speaker Gingrich primarily attract hard-core conservatives who are likely to register as Republicans -- and hence they focus their campaign energy on closed contests where their supporters can dominate. For Rep. Paul, open contests are better. Hence Rep. Paul has two advantages to consider: the non-Republican vote in open contests, and his "fervency advantage" in caucuses compared to primaries.

Mitt Romney

Newt Gingrich

Rick Santorum

Jon Huntsman

Following are the upcoming contests through Super Tuesday, including whether they are open, closed, or semi-open.

State	Election Type	Date	Delegates
Nevada	Closed Proportional Caucus	Feb. 4	28
Maine	Closed Proportional Caucus	Feb. 4	24
Colorado	Closed Proportional Caucus	Feb. 7	36
Minnesota	Open Proportional Caucus	Feb. 7	40
Arizona	Semi-open Winner-take-all Primary	Feb. 28	29
Michigan	Open Two-winners-take-all Primary	Feb. 28	30

And one week later, on March 6 2012, comes "Super Tuesday": eleven contests in one day. Five proportional contests award 157 delegates, and partial winner-take-all contests award 209 delegates. By then, you'll know how to properly interpret everything!

State	Election Type	Total Delegates
Alaska	Closed Proportional Caucus	27
Georgia	Open Two-winners-take-all Primary	76
Idaho	Open Proportional Caucus	32
Massachusetts	Semi-open Proportional Primary	41
North Dakota	Open Proportional Caucus	28
Ohio	Closed District-winner-take-all Primary	66
Oklahoma	Closed District-winner-take-all Primary	43
Tennessee	Open District-winner-take-all Primary	58
Vermont	Open District-winner-take-all Primary	17
Virginia	Open District-winner-take-all Primary	49
Wyoming	Closed Proportional Caucus	29

Three of the upcoming contests have a "home state advantage" factor too. Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts and his father was governor of Michigan. Newt Gingrich was elected from Georgia; hence he gets the home-state advantage there. All of those factors contribut to why none of the four candidates will pull out before Super Tuesday!

-- Summary by Jesse Gordon, editor-in-chief, OnTheIssues.org, Feb. 6, 2012.


*Candidates' Issue Pages:*
*Incumbents:* Pres.Barack Obama V.P.Joe Biden *GOP Candidates:* Rep.Newt Gingrich(GA) Gov.Jon Huntsman(UT) Rep.Thaddeus McCotter(MI) Rep.Ron Paul(TX) Gov.Rick Perry(TX) Gov.Buddy Roemer(LA) Gov.Mitt Romney(MA) Sen.Rick Santorum(PA)	*Third Party Candidates:* Gov.Gary Johnson(NM, Libertarian) Jill Stein(MA, Green) Mayor Johnson Anderson(UT, Justice Party) *GOP Withdrawals:* Rep.Michele Bachmann(MN) Herman Cain(GA) Gov.Haley Barbour(MS) Gov.Chris Cristie(NJ) Mayor Rudy Giuliani(NYC) Gov.Mike Huckabee(AR) Gov.Bobby Jindal(LA) Gov.Sarah Palin(AK) Gov.Tim Pawlenty(MN) Donald Trump(NY)